Currently, when a critical time is approaching as the coalition troops are leaving Afghanistan, many observers expect a burst of activity of different radical groups in Afghanistan as well as those basing on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Voice of Russia talked to Erlan Karin,a political scientist and Chairman of the Council Board of the Center for Security Programs from Kazakhstan, about the possibility of spreading of the terrorist threat across Central Asia.
But can we say whether this flurry of activity will occur and affect Central Asia?
Certainly, Afghanistan is in the focus of experts' interest, from London to Shanghai. There are many versions, scenarios; most of them are negative. This way or another, these scenarios foresee different models of escalation, deterioration of the situation in this country and in this region.
We should bear in mind that besides the long-awaited withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan scheduled for the end of the year, the situation in the country will be influenced by the forthcoming elections scheduled for April.
Many experts expect that this election will contribute to the destabilization of the situation, because different groups will try to ruin them. 16 terrorist acts took place in Kabul in January, and 150 people were killed, and it is what happened only in one city during one month. So, the deterioration of the situation is already happening now. As for the influence on Central Asia, unfortunately, the development of these processes is taking on an unpredictable character. Central Asia is, so to say, entering a zone of political turbulence.
Do you refer to processes connected with the approaching changing of political leaders or some processes connected with political struggle?
Globally, it is, of course, a change of generations, and currently, we are speaking about the approaching electoral cycle.There are many, so to say, "delayed-action mines" in Central Asia; the matter concerns different border, territorial, inter-ethnical problems.
This is their heavy legacy. And this year there was an armed conflict on the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tadzhikistan and they were firing mortars at each other, because during all these years they cannot agree upon 500 kilometers of the line of the state border.
This leads to a broader conclusion that Central Asian countries should develop in the framework of a more global institution, some kind ofconfederation, if notunder the aegis of Russia, then under the aegis of Central Asian states in order to easily solve such problems in view of common interestsand theircommon historical fate. But, unfortunately there is no such approach so far; theapproach is an egoistic and nationalistic one.
Unfortunately, 20 years ago, the five countries of the region chose different ways. There is no feeling of being in the common space in the minds of the political elites in the region. This hampers in finding compromises, working out a common development strategy.
We have the same problems, the same challenges and threats. And the main problem is as follows: in the situation when the threat from Afghanistan grows, how can we speak about overcoming these difficulties, if the countries of the region are conflicting with each other. There are no programs of regional cooperation. I believe the main issue on the agenda today is to unite efforts. And we must speak about it today, because tomorrow it will be late.
And what role may the USA or Russia play here?
Russia, the USA, China and other countries are interested in Central Asia. There are several security institutions in the region – the CSTO, SCO and others. And major players, like Russia and the USA, could push the countries towards discussing current issues, security issues in a wider context, in a wider regional scale, not the way it happens now, when each country tries to develop its own security strategy and simply surrounds itself with barbed wire and checkpoints.
Insufficiently considered steps, such as creating military bases and handing weapons to local states after the withdrawal of troops /as are said to be planned by the US/ lead to militarization of the region, which ruins the balance and encourages the countries to arm actively.
Kazakhstan used to be rather a quiet place from the point of view of terrorist threat. And suddenly, two years ago, there was a series of terrorist acts in the West of the country organized, as far as I can get, by some Islamic underground network. Can you tell us more details about this phenomenon?
Before I went to the US, we've studied all criminal cases connected with terrorism in the ten year period and interviewed prisoners convicted on these charges and their relatives. And I should say that it is difficult to classify the events in Kazakhstan in 2011 – 2012 as terrorist acts. These were not planned actions, they were spontaneous actions. As a rule, these were armed clashes neutralized by the police.
And there were no explosions, only clashes?
Yes. There was only one incident in the West of Kazakhstan, in the town of Atral – an explosion due to mishandling. Yes, an action was being prepared, but due to lack of experience and skills, it was not carried out.
Who are these people?
We've analyzed the activities of different groups, and we've conditionally divided them into three groups. The first one is a diversionary group; there was only one such group known. The second one is conditionally called "jamaat", it's a religious community, a group of young people who used to visit mosque and carry out religious rituals, but later they became more radically-minded. And the third group is bands, criminal bands that were engaged in robberies and racket, and later also turned more radical.
These criminal bands represent 90 percent of all the groups. The ideology of jihad is convenient for them as it contains an idea of seizing property. So, all these were separate, spontaneous incidents.
Kazakhstan is an economically stable country. What stimulated these movements?
Firstly, an ideological vacuum, and secondly – too fast changes. Many young people cannot find their bearings, did not find their place in these process of changes.
On the whole, the common vector is positive – the country is developing in a positive direction, but at the same time a certain part of young people cannot adjust to the situation. The ideology of dependency has its influence on them; and there are also certain traditional factors and so on.
Are the countries of the region capable of resisting these present-day threats by themselves?
I think, in general, the countries of the region are able to overcome these threats and to fight with them. The threats of internal aggression are minimal at the moment, it's external threats that come to the fore.
But nevertheless we need joint efforts, growth of cooperation. It seems that the countries of the region are more and more separating from each other, but on the whole I believe the potential for a dialogue is preserved, and the countries are working in the framework of different regional security institutions, like the CSTO and SCO. Of course, negative scenarios are possible, but on the whole the countries of the region will cope with the situation.
Source: Voice of Russia
