Weather forecasters analyzing snow cover in North America to forecast winter conditions may be looking in the wrong place, some researchers say.
Scientists at the University of Georgia, Athens say that rather than examining the snow cover in the northern United States and into Canada, they should be looking at the snow piling up in the band of frozen tundra that stretches from Siberia to far-northern Europe.
The researchers say snow in those regions may have as much effect on the climate of the United States as the much-better-known El Nino and La Nina weather phenomena, a UGA release said Friday.
To understand what kind of winter season North America may experience, they say, researchers and weather forecasters should take a closer look at snowpack in northern Eurasia laid down the previous October and November.
"To date, there had been no thorough examination of how snow cover from various regions of Eurasia influences North American winter temperatures," UGA climatologist Thomas Mote said.
"The goal of this research was to determine whether there is a significant relationship between autumn snow extent in specific regions of Eurasia and temperatures across North America during the subsequent winter."
The study found years with extensive autumn snow in northwest Eurasia were linked with subsequent winter temperatures as much as seven degrees Fahrenheit lower than average in the center of North America, a difference roughly the same as a one-month shift in climate, the researchers said.
