Experts on Thursday cautiously welcomed a joint pact by China and the United States to accelerate climate action this decade, as COP26 negotiations edged towards their end with no clear plan to limit heating to 1.5C.

The surprise declaration unveiled late Wednesday by envoys John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua said the world's two largest emitters "recognise the seriousness and urgency of the climate crisis".

Importantly, the document stressed the need for carbon pollution to fall this decade and committed to work swiftly to reduce their emissions of methane — a potent greenhouse gas.

Observers said the pact, which was short on detail, should allay fears that US-China tensions coming into the two-week UN climate summit in Glasgow might derail the talks.

"It can only be good news that the US and China are working closely on climate change and slashing methane emissions," said Bernice Lee, research director at the Chatham House think tank.

"But the statement is not enough to close the deal. The real test of Washington and Beijing is how hard they push for a 1.5C aligned deal here in Glasgow."

Delegates from nearly 200 countries are at the business end of negotiations aimed at keeping the Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach.

The landmark 2015 accord saw nations promise to limit heating to "well below" two degrees Celsius and to work towards a safer 1.5C cap through sweeping emissions cuts.

But in the six years since, carbon pollution has continued to increase as stronger and more frequent extreme drought, floods and storms are linked to the 1.1C of warming humans have so far caused.

In Paris, countries agreed to redouble their emissions cutting plans every five years under the agreement's "ratchet" mechanism designed to produce ever-growing climate ambition.

But several large emitters, China included, missed the 2020 deadline for submitting new plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Others handed in plans that were no more ambitious — or even less so — than their initial plans.

The UN says that national pledges to date set Earth on course to warm 2.7C this century.

– Climate 'transcends other issues' –

Wednesday saw the release of draft "decisions", which were the first real indication of where nations are 10 days into deeply technical discussions.

The text, which is sure to change during ministerial debates, called for nations to "revisit and strengthen" their NDCs by next year, instead of 2025 as previously agreed.

But several issues remain unresolved. These include how vulnerable nations are supported financially to green their economies and prepare for future shocks.

Rules over transparency, common reporting of climate action and carbon markets are all also still being debated.

And nations already hit by climate disasters are demanding "loss and damage" support from rich emitters.

But the main sticking point is ambition: which countries plan to slash their carbon emissions fast enough to avert dangerous heating.

European Commission vice president Frans Timmermans said that the US-China pact would have a "positive influence" on discussions in Glasgow.

"With all the difficulties they have on other issues, to now actually signal this issue transcends other issues… that helps the global community come to terms with the fact that we have to act now," he told AFP.

US-China climate pact: What does it mean for Beijing?
Beijing (AFP) Nov 11, 2021 –

After trading barbs throughout the COP26 UN summit in Glasgow, the United States and China announced a surprise pact to cooperate on climate change, signalling a desire to set it aside from other thorny disputes.

What do the broad commitments mean for China, responsible for more than a quarter of the world's greenhouse gas emissions?

– What are China's climate goals? –

China has pledged to peak coal consumption before 2030 and go carbon neutral by 2060.

It has also said it will slash emissions intensity — or emissions per unit of economic output — by more than 65 percent.

But Beijing has yet to spell out precisely how it intends to achieve these goals, and environmentalists have warned that without specifying the size of the peak or setting an absolute cap, China can essentially keep increasing emissions until 2030.

President Xi Jinping has said China will stop funding coal projects abroad, but at home, it continues to build new coal power plants — the single largest source of carbon pollution.

The United States has said it plans to be carbon neutral by 2050.

– What did US-China agree to? –

Washington and Beijing have committed to setting up a working group to tackle climate change in the short term and promised to meet regularly to address the crisis.

The world's two biggest polluters said they "recognise the seriousness and urgency of the climate crisis", especially during this "critical decade", according to a document outlining the broad-brush agreement.

The first meeting will be in the first half of next year.

"This again shows that China and the US can cooperate on matters of global significance," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Thursday.

Although the plan was light on concrete targets, it was heavy on political symbolism.

Greenpeace China's global policy advisor Li Shuo told AFP the statement clearly signalled "a political desire to set the issue of climate change a bit aside" from other sources of tension.

"It prevents the worst — a US-China decoupling on climate action."

– What about methane? –

Around 100 nations this month joined an initiative to cut methane emissions by at least 30 percent this decade, but China was noticeably absent.

The US-China pact includes a focus on lowering methane emissions, with both sides looking into improving measurement and mitigation in the fossil fuel, waste and agriculture sectors.

However, environmentalists have warned that Beijing is still lagging in the understanding of its sources and scale of methane emissions, with much of its climate efforts concerned instead with carbon emissions.

Methane is considered the second key greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. While it can be naturally released, and absorbed, by the earth, its emissions have skyrocketed with industrialisation and the expansion of agriculture.

China's main methane sources are not just fossil fuel mining and burning, but also natural emissions from livestock as well as vast rice farms. These emissions are tougher to measure and control compared with the use of fossil fuels.

– Why won't China commit to an earlier peak? –

Washington has been keen for Beijing to sign up to a more ambitious earlier emissions peak than 2030.

China, however, does not want to be seen as bowing to political pressure and is sceptical that the United States and other countries can meet their own climate pledges.

It also faces a struggle to wean itself off coal, which provides nearly 60 percent of its power.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said China not setting more specific targets may be linked to its economic slowdown.

"Uncertainty over the economic outlook has made the leadership hesitant to commit to a specific emissions pathway or ceiling for this decade," he told AFP.

A key provision in the US-China pact, however, leaves room for them to update their long-term strategies and keep channels of communication open.

Shiran Victoria Shen, environmental policy expert at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, added that China tends to "under-promise but over-deliver on international commitments".

This provides "some reassurance that a seemingly unambitious international pledge can still be accompanied by the necessary change."