While oil production from key shale formations in the United States is in decline, the drop isn't as severe as expected given low rig counts, analysis finds.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a drilling productivity report oil production from some of the more lucrative shale basins in the United States is expected to drop by a combined 92,000 barrels per day by July. While the Eagle Ford shale play in Texas is expected to show the largest drop in terms of volume, the Niobrara shale in Colorado declines the most in terms of percent by July, federal data show.
Bentek Energy, the forecasting unit of energy news site Platts, said production from Eagle Ford in May was down 6,000 barrels per day, about 1 percent lower than for April and the second straight month of declines. Bentek said production in the Bakken shale in North Dakota for May increased 650 bpd, holding more or less steady despite a severe drop in rig deployments.
A depressed crude oil market has left energy companies with less capital to invest in exploration and production. The weak market is reflected in a decline in the number of rigs deployed in shale basins in the Lower 48.
Sami Yahya, an energy analyst for Bentek, said overall market conditions are not working in shale's favor, though the situation could be far worse than current data show.
"It is worth noting that production decline from the Eagle Ford in May is very small and is less than the decline noted in April, and production from the Bakken shale remains flat despite the severe cuts in rigs," Yahya said in an emailed report. "The shortening of drill times in both of those key shales has helped sustain production levels."
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said total crude oil production in May reached 9.6 million bpd, but levels are expected to decline through early 2016. The full-year 2016 average is expected to be 9.3 million bpd.
